Ruff Rides the Rally with Caution

Ruff Times, edited by veteran Howard Ruff, is up 20.4% over the year to date through March, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest's count, compared to a negative 10.56% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.

Ruff wrote recently: "The stock market has made a dead-cat bounce, even though the returns are spectacular for short-term investors, which I am not. The long-term problem with the stock market is two-fold: 1) its earnings will decline as business sags deeper and deeper into this recession which will depress stock-market prices; and 2) the price/earnings ratio (PE) is still way above the typical PE at the bottom of bear markets. The stock market will have its ups and downs and literally suck Wall Street investors into short-term rallies as they try to pick 'the bottom.'" (MarketWatch)

Ruff's conclusion: "Sell into these rallies. The stock market is toxic and will be for several years."

Well there's confidence for you! And this from a guy who's made 20% during the last year.