The Bear Market End is Near... Maybe

A veteran bear says the end is near -- the end of the great bear market. But we're not quite there yet.

In its latest issue, Growth Fund Guide draws elaborate technical parallels with the 1929-1932 bear market. In the short run, it concludes that this year's decline "could last for many more days." But not forever.

Putting the stock market in a longer perspective, Growth Fund Guide says,

"Since its October 9, 2007 high, the DJIA has appeared to us to be in the process of continuing the major bear market that began in early 2000. Recent price action seems to suggest that we could see one or more declines and advances that could rhyme with [the 1929-32 bear market] ... history is suggesting that that a meaningful low in the U.S. market is most likely to take place within the last six months of 2009 or sometime during 2010."

How "meaningful?" Elsewhere, GFG makes it clear: "When we look for a possible low for super bear market, history points to the 18 month time period after June 2009."

In other words, it's the big one. And it's close in time, although Growth Fund Guide offers little hint as to how close it is in terms of stock prices.

From The end is nigh -- and that's good.

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So we could actually be looking at 2011 before the end! Although remember that the end of a bear market is not necessarily the start of a bull run!

I still think that this analysis of 20-year cycles has much going for it.